by David Grunwald
As most people in the western world, I have been using ChapGPT. Extensively. Furthermore, at GTS we implemented the OpenAI API for our new AI subtitle translation service. But as everyone knows, ChatGPT is not always accurate and needs to be fact-checked. In this vein, I wanted to tell you a story which sheds light on the reliability of ChatGPT.
AI might be great at summarizing information, cracking jokes, or even writing your emails — but when it comes to forecasting real-world events, it can miss the mark in spectacular fashion. Just weeks ago, I asked ChatGPT whether an American could realistically be elected pope. The answer? “Close to zero.” Fast forward to today: the world is watching the first-ever American pontiff address the faithful from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. It’s a stunning moment — not just for the Catholic Church, but for anyone putting too much faith in machine-generated predictions.
On April 21, 2025 I asked ChatGPT the following question:
Can Cardinal Timothy Dolan become the new Pope?
Here is the response I received.
Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, is eligible to be elected pope in the upcoming 2025 papal conclave following the death of Pope Francis. As a cardinal under the age of 80, he is among the 138 electors who will participate in selecting the next pontiff .
While any baptized Catholic male can technically be elected pope, modern tradition has seen the role filled exclusively by members of the College of Cardinals. Cardinal Dolan, appointed as Archbishop of New York in 2009 and elevated to cardinal in 2012 by Pope Benedict XVI, is a prominent figure in the American Catholic Church . He is known for his charisma, media presence, and conservative theological views.
Despite his prominence, experts consider Dolan a long shot for the papacy. Historically, the Catholic Church has been hesitant to elect a pope from a global superpower like the United States, fearing it could politicize the papacy and undermine its perceived neutrality . Additionally, American cardinals are often viewed as “culture warriors,” which may make them less appealing to the international College of Cardinals.
I followed up with another question:
Was there ever a pope from the USA?
The answer:
No, there has never been a pope from the United States.
All popes in the history of the Catholic Church have been European, with the majority from Italy. The current pope, Pope Francis, is from Argentina, making him the first pope from the Americas and the Southern Hemisphere, but not from the United States.
American cardinals like Timothy Dolan and Raymond Burke have been considered prominent figures, but none have ever been elected pope. The idea of an American pope has long been viewed as unlikely due to the global political influence of the U.S., which could challenge the Vatican’s tradition of neutrality.
In summary, while Cardinal Dolan is eligible and will participate in the conclave, the likelihood of his election as the next pope is considered low due to historical precedents and concerns about the implications of an American papacy.
And yet — an American was just elected pope. Not only that, but ChatGPT didn’t even mention Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as a leading candidate. That got me thinking: is ChatGPT a false prophet? Can we rely on AI at all for forward-looking insight?
In conclusion
ChatGPT has clear limits when it comes to forecasting. Yes, it can analyze trends, weigh probabilities, and summarize expert opinion based on historical data. But it doesn’t have access to real-time decision-making, insider dynamics, or the unpredictable nature of human behavior — especially behind closed doors in a papal conclave. Any prediction it gives should be treated as speculative, not definitive.
So no, ChatGPT isn’t useless. But it’s no oracle either. Think of it not as a prophet, but as a well-read analyst: useful, informed — and sometimes, just flat-out wrong. Human forecasters often outperform AI in predicting future events.
